Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 0.462443 0.533900 0.611165 0.700725 0.801471 0.911091 1.039176
2025-05-25 0.350921 0.442892 0.549958 0.683067 0.843316 1.029180 1.260166
2025-06-01 0.281845 0.387033 0.518245 0.692197 0.914785 1.187915 1.545987
2025-06-08 0.224752 0.335687 0.483796 0.692710 0.975929 1.342166 1.846405
2025-06-15 0.190281 0.308002 0.475599 0.726008 1.083847 1.568882 2.266279
2025-06-22 0.147781 0.260601 0.432451 0.704949 1.115758 1.699443 2.575398
2025-06-29 0.117375 0.225285 0.400866 0.695621 1.162987 1.856731 2.939580
2025-07-06 0.092408 0.193306 0.368703 0.680162 1.198769 2.001451 3.301712
2025-07-13 0.078483 0.177663 0.360713 0.702433 1.296373 2.249562 3.843530
2025-07-20 0.064373 0.158218 0.342430 0.704188 1.360481 2.452073 4.335118
2025-07-27 0.054614 0.145183 0.333571 0.721308 1.452827 2.709492 4.938495
2025-08-03 0.046692 0.134075 0.326361 0.740303 1.550712 2.985615 5.597354
2025-08-10 0.036126 0.114016 0.297471 0.714073 1.565903 3.127998 6.057021
2025-08-17 0.027224 0.095031 0.266546 0.678096 1.557575 3.228225 6.454838
2025-08-24 0.021902 0.083906 0.251230 0.672958 1.609906 3.445178 7.081406
2025-08-31 0.017390 0.073380 0.234811 0.662334 1.649547 3.642516 7.690796
2025-09-07 0.014991 0.068749 0.232704 0.685265 1.764191 3.996816 8.624734
2025-09-14 0.011435 0.058350 0.211938 0.658257 1.764818 4.124503 9.136955
2025-09-21 0.008980 0.050816 0.197316 0.644027 1.792387 4.309493 9.776505
2025-09-28 0.006946 0.043819 0.182219 0.625355 1.806617 4.467547 10.375020
2025-10-05 0.005961 0.041033 0.180097 0.642631 1.910579 4.827062 11.410653
2025-10-12 0.004854 0.036929 0.172199 0.641532 1.968291 5.090401 12.266731
2025-10-19 0.004131 0.034409 0.169314 0.655118 2.065733 5.451276 13.355136